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  #176  
Old 03-23-2020, 05:41 PM
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Too bad because surely this was going to be the year that BK finally signed another Top 5 class (since he finally said that he wanted to make the Top 5)
I know you're being sarcastic, but ND still has a really good class so far, even if there is no chance that ND would end up in the Top 5. ND is taking probably 20 commits this cycle. I've posted this in other threads before, but it is next to impossible to get into the Top 5 without at least 24/25 commits. I think Clemson and USC have done so recently with classes featuring four or five 5-stars, but even those classes might not have been Top 5. That's just not how the rankings work. ND could still get close to Top 5 based on average player rating. They were #9 last year, which is a huge difference from where they ended up in the team rankings (somewhere between 15 and 20). Now, it's not perfect because, like I've said before, ND is still missing on guys they would take, like Henning, McMillan, etc. But it does level the playing field because if you actually look at some of the classes ahead of ND, like Penn State's 27-man class or Miami's 22-man class, they do not have the star power of ND's 16-man class.

ND has one of the best QB's in the nation, based on rankings, film evaluations, and camp evaluations. Buchner is ranked #33 overall on the 247 Composite, which is literally one spot away from 5-star status. He just got invited to the Elite 11 and will probably move up as he attends more camps this summer. Also, he transferred to the highest football division in San Diego, so he will face better competition week in and week out. If he plays well in that division, that will answer some of the doubts evaluators had about him - the level of competition he played in last year was awful. A 5-star QB really elevates a class.

ND has 6 commits, 5 of which are in the Top 200 (Berrong is the lowest commit at #161 overall) according to the 247 Composite. ND is still in on Top 100 players like Nolan Rucci, Will Shipley, Landon Tengwall, Dont'e Thornton, Rocco Spindler, Garrett Dellinger, and Ceyair Wright. ND could potentially land 3 or 4 guys from that group, although that's impossible to predict with the state of recruiting right now and ND not being able to host their big recruiting weekend last weekend. ND has to hope that these guys all hold off on commitments until after they take more visits, especially Shipley and Tengwall.

ND will not finish in the Top 5 because they won't have enough commits and they won't have enough 5-stars. But this has the potential to be a really good class even though it's small in number (between 5-10) if ND can hit on some of the bigger fish mentioned above and close strong. We've seen ND start hot and then fall flat, settling for mostly 3-stars in the back end of the class. BK and the staff have to do better, but they are in on enough guys to make it happen this year.
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  #177  
Old 03-24-2020, 03:26 AM
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The difference may be that you were leaving a different landscape. ND is asking kids to leave warm weather, beaches, and action packed area for South Bend. Add the virus boosting the stay close to home vibe and that is trouble.
I know when I think of Columbus, I think of warm weather, beaches and action packed.
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  #178  
Old 03-24-2020, 06:07 AM
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I know you're being sarcastic, but ND still has a really good class so far, even if there is no chance that ND would end up in the Top 5. ND is taking probably 20 commits this cycle. I've posted this in other threads before, but it is next to impossible to get into the Top 5 without at least 24/25 commits. I think Clemson and USC have done so recently with classes featuring four or five 5-stars, but even those classes might not have been Top 5. That's just not how the rankings work. ND could still get close to Top 5 based on average player rating. They were #9 last year, which is a huge difference from where they ended up in the team rankings (somewhere between 15 and 20). Now, it's not perfect because, like I've said before, ND is still missing on guys they would take, like Henning, McMillan, etc. But it does level the playing field because if you actually look at some of the classes ahead of ND, like Penn State's 27-man class or Miami's 22-man class, they do not have the star power of ND's 16-man class.

ND has one of the best QB's in the nation, based on rankings, film evaluations, and camp evaluations. Buchner is ranked #33 overall on the 247 Composite, which is literally one spot away from 5-star status. He just got invited to the Elite 11 and will probably move up as he attends more camps this summer. Also, he transferred to the highest football division in San Diego, so he will face better competition week in and week out. If he plays well in that division, that will answer some of the doubts evaluators had about him - the level of competition he played in last year was awful. A 5-star QB really elevates a class.

ND has 6 commits, 5 of which are in the Top 200 (Berrong is the lowest commit at #161 overall) according to the 247 Composite. ND is still in on Top 100 players like Nolan Rucci, Will Shipley, Landon Tengwall, Dont'e Thornton, Rocco Spindler, Garrett Dellinger, and Ceyair Wright. ND could potentially land 3 or 4 guys from that group, although that's impossible to predict with the state of recruiting right now and ND not being able to host their big recruiting weekend last weekend. ND has to hope that these guys all hold off on commitments until after they take more visits, especially Shipley and Tengwall.

ND will not finish in the Top 5 because they won't have enough commits and they won't have enough 5-stars. But this has the potential to be a really good class even though it's small in number (between 5-10) if ND can hit on some of the bigger fish mentioned above and close strong. We've seen ND start hot and then fall flat, settling for mostly 3-stars in the back end of the class. BK and the staff have to do better, but they are in on enough guys to make it happen this year.
Two points:

1) The "falling flat" may have already started for the 2021 class. ND just had their top ranked WR decommit and Steve Whitfong (90% accurate) just recently predicted that Shipley will sign with Clemson. Kelly's next recruiting class has already slipped from #1 to #7 and he still has another 9 months to go.

2) Brian Kelly signed 27 recruits in 2018 and only had the #10 class which he then followed up with classes ranked #16 and #17 (two lowest ranked consecutive classes since Willingham). At this point, history suggests that a class between #11 and #20 is more likely for Kelly in 2021 than anything close to a Top 5 class.
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  #179  
Old 03-24-2020, 02:59 PM
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Two points:

1) The "falling flat" may have already started for the 2021 class. ND just had their top ranked WR decommit and Steve Whitfong (90% accurate) just recently predicted that Shipley will sign with Clemson. Kelly's next recruiting class has already slipped from #1 to #7 and he still has another 9 months to go.

2) Brian Kelly signed 27 recruits in 2018 and only had the #10 class which he then followed up with classes ranked #16 and #17 (two lowest ranked consecutive classes since Willingham). At this point, history suggests that a class between #11 and #20 is more likely for Kelly in 2021 than anything close to a Top 5 class.
Again, you have to look at the recruits that make up the class. ND's class was ranked #17 last year. If you look at the players they landed and compare them to the teams that finished ahead of them in the rankings, you will see that ND really had a Top 10 class. (They were ranked #9 based on average player ranking).

#17 Notre Dame: 16 commits, 4 Top 100, 9 Top 250
#16 Washington: 22 commits, 2 Top 100, 8 Top 250
#15 Penn State: 27 commits, 2 Top 100, 8 Top 250
#14 Michigan: 23 commits, 0 Top 100, 8 Top 250
#13 Miami: 22 commits, 2 Top 100, 8 Top 250
#12 Oregon: 22 commits, 3 Top 100, 6 Top 250
#11 Oklahoma: 23 commits, 2 Top 100, 9 Top 250
#10 Tennessee: 23 commits, 3 Top 100, 10 Top 250

Of the teams that finished ranked #10 and up, ND had the most Top 100 recruits with 4. ND is tied for second with Oklahoma (#11) with 9 Top 250 commits, and only Tennessee (#10) had more with 10 Top 250 commits. ND had six fewer commits than any class ranked ahead of them. SIX. That is a huge difference. As I've said before, you can't completely ignore class size because ND would have taken Jalen McMillan if he flipped from Washington or Latham Ransom if he flipped from Ohio State. So ND missed on some guys they otherwise would have taken.

ND is going to sign another small class this year, likely around 20. If you look at the class itself, you will see ND bringing in a ton of talent year after year. They need more talent to compete with Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson. They need to do better in recruiting. Period. But ND is off to a good start in 2021, despite losing Colzie. It's too early to say this class is flattening because ND is in on some Top 100 talent and the recruiting calendar is going to be stretched out due to COVID-19. Where ND stands in August will give a better idea because that's usually when ND is pretty much finished with their class, with only a handful of recruits the last few years committing once the season starts.
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  #180  
Old 03-24-2020, 04:50 PM
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Again, you have to look at the recruits that make up the class. ND's class was ranked #17 last year. If you look at the players they landed and compare them to the teams that finished ahead of them in the rankings, you will see that ND really had a Top 10 class. (They were ranked #9 based on average player ranking).

#17 Notre Dame: 16 commits, 4 Top 100, 9 Top 250
#16 Washington: 22 commits, 2 Top 100, 8 Top 250
#15 Penn State: 27 commits, 2 Top 100, 8 Top 250
#14 Michigan: 23 commits, 0 Top 100, 8 Top 250
#13 Miami: 22 commits, 2 Top 100, 8 Top 250
#12 Oregon: 22 commits, 3 Top 100, 6 Top 250
#11 Oklahoma: 23 commits, 2 Top 100, 9 Top 250
#10 Tennessee: 23 commits, 3 Top 100, 10 Top 250

Of the teams that finished ranked #10 and up, ND had the most Top 100 recruits with 4. ND is tied for second with Oklahoma (#11) with 9 Top 250 commits, and only Tennessee (#10) had more with 10 Top 250 commits. ND had six fewer commits than any class ranked ahead of them. SIX. That is a huge difference. As I've said before, you can't completely ignore class size because ND would have taken Jalen McMillan if he flipped from Washington or Latham Ransom if he flipped from Ohio State. So ND missed on some guys they otherwise would have taken.

ND is going to sign another small class this year, likely around 20. If you look at the class itself, you will see ND bringing in a ton of talent year after year. They need more talent to compete with Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson. They need to do better in recruiting. Period. But ND is off to a good start in 2021, despite losing Colzie. It's too early to say this class is flattening because ND is in on some Top 100 talent and the recruiting calendar is going to be stretched out due to COVID-19. Where ND stands in August will give a better idea because that's usually when ND is pretty much finished with their class, with only a handful of recruits the last few years committing once the season starts.
I agree with you mostly, but a few things:
1. I dont think Notre Dame will ever get a #1 class, they have too many hurdles and many of the tippy top athletes want an easy ride in a warm place. That will never be Notre Dame

2. I dont mind small classes with good quality recruits, which you provided.

I think just this particular class will be hurt by the coronavirus. I see this class slipping and I am sure that will feed the anti-Kelly fans a lot, but the people with common sense will know the real reason for the slip.
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  #181  
Old 03-24-2020, 05:28 PM
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Again, you have to look at the recruits that make up the class. ND's class was ranked #17 last year. If you look at the players they landed and compare them to the teams that finished ahead of them in the rankings, you will see that ND really had a Top 10 class. (They were ranked #9 based on average player ranking).

#17 Notre Dame: 16 commits, 4 Top 100, 9 Top 250
#16 Washington: 22 commits, 2 Top 100, 8 Top 250
#15 Penn State: 27 commits, 2 Top 100, 8 Top 250
#14 Michigan: 23 commits, 0 Top 100, 8 Top 250
#13 Miami: 22 commits, 2 Top 100, 8 Top 250
#12 Oregon: 22 commits, 3 Top 100, 6 Top 250
#11 Oklahoma: 23 commits, 2 Top 100, 9 Top 250
#10 Tennessee: 23 commits, 3 Top 100, 10 Top 250

Of the teams that finished ranked #10 and up, ND had the most Top 100 recruits with 4. ND is tied for second with Oklahoma (#11) with 9 Top 250 commits, and only Tennessee (#10) had more with 10 Top 250 commits. ND had six fewer commits than any class ranked ahead of them. SIX. That is a huge difference. As I've said before, you can't completely ignore class size because ND would have taken Jalen McMillan if he flipped from Washington or Latham Ransom if he flipped from Ohio State. So ND missed on some guys they otherwise would have taken.

ND is going to sign another small class this year, likely around 20. If you look at the class itself, you will see ND bringing in a ton of talent year after year. They need more talent to compete with Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson. They need to do better in recruiting. Period. But ND is off to a good start in 2021, despite losing Colzie. It's too early to say this class is flattening because ND is in on some Top 100 talent and the recruiting calendar is going to be stretched out due to COVID-19. Where ND stands in August will give a better idea because that's usually when ND is pretty much finished with their class, with only a handful of recruits the last few years committing once the season starts.
The problem is that to win the NC you need both Quality and Quantity.

When Kelly has had quality, he has fallen short on the quantity (2019 - 16 recruits)

When he has had quantity (2018 - 27 recruits), he has fallen short on the quality
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  #182  
Old 03-24-2020, 06:10 PM
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The problem is that to win the NC you need both Quality and Quantity.

When Kelly has had quality, he has fallen short on the quantity (2019 - 16 recruits)

When he has had quantity (2018 - 27 recruits), he has fallen short on the quality
Don't disagree with anything you're saying here. Recruiting needs to be better. ND needs to land guys like Ransom and McMillan from last year, or Nick Petite-Frere who was a 5-star OT from Florida and a perfect ND fit, but chose OSU a few years ago. ND needs to land those guys. All I am saying is that recruiting rankings don't give a complete picture because of how much the number of recruits affects the rankings. And ND is limited in the number they can take this year because they aren't losing many guys to transfers, medicals, etc. and more freshmen have been preserving a year of eligibility over the last few years, which means they will have 5th year options and can take a spot that would otherwise go to a recruit.
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  #183  
Old 03-24-2020, 06:23 PM
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I agree with you mostly, but a few things:
1. I dont think Notre Dame will ever get a #1 class, they have too many hurdles and many of the tippy top athletes want an easy ride in a warm place. That will never be Notre Dame

2. I dont mind small classes with good quality recruits, which you provided.

I think just this particular class will be hurt by the coronavirus. I see this class slipping and I am sure that will feed the anti-Kelly fans a lot, but the people with common sense will know the real reason for the slip.
I agree. I don't see ND ever landing the #1 class. But in 2013, fresh off a national championship run, they landed the #3/#5 class (Rivals/247). ND is capable of landing a Top 5 class. I think BK has emphasized fit more during the second half of his tenure, which is why ND is not reaching for some borderline, high-caliber recruits that they were reaching for in the past. I think BK is capable of getting ND around #7/#8, but I think the right coach could get ND consistently around the Top 5. BK is trying to be a better recruiter, but he is not at the level of Dabo, Ryan Day, Nick Saban, etc. That's obvious. ND has been winning consistently the last 3 years, but they have not cashed that in to land better classes, IMO. They have been really good - Top 10 - but realistically, Top 5 is needed to win a title.
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  #184  
Old 03-24-2020, 07:53 PM
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Don't disagree with anything you're saying here. Recruiting needs to be better. ND needs to land guys like Ransom and McMillan from last year, or Nick Petite-Frere who was a 5-star OT from Florida and a perfect ND fit, but chose OSU a few years ago. ND needs to land those guys. All I am saying is that recruiting rankings don't give a complete picture because of how much the number of recruits affects the rankings. And ND is limited in the number they can take this year because they aren't losing many guys to transfers, medicals, etc. and more freshmen have been preserving a year of eligibility over the last few years, which means they will have 5th year options and can take a spot that would otherwise go to a recruit.
Its the difference between keeping someone like Kolzie in the class and adding someone like Shipley instead of needing 3*'s to fill out a class.

Kelly as a recruiter is sort of like a baseball starter who bats 7th to 9th. Good enough to start but not good enough to bat at the top of the order.
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  #185  
Old 03-25-2020, 01:31 PM
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Its the difference between keeping someone like Kolzie in the class and adding someone like Shipley instead of needing 3*'s to fill out a class.

Kelly as a recruiter is sort of like a baseball starter who bats 7th to 9th. Good enough to start but not good enough to bat at the top of the order.
Agree about Kelly.It feels like he has hit his peak at ND. It was once said that college football is 80% recruiting, the other 20% is player development, game planning, motivation and the timing of calls and plays made on game day. Kelly doesn't compete year in and year out in recruiting with Clemson, Bama, OSU and Georgia. I think it takes someone with great charisma to get it done at ND. Ara and Lou had it. Urban could do it - if he wants to come and if the ND administration wants him. I didn't think PJ Fleck was the right guy 2 years ago but his win over Penn State was impressive. For Kelly, the best he can do is get this team to rise up above themselves and beat Clemson at home. Purdue did it to OSU 2 years ago, Syracuse did it to Clemson a few years ago. Get this team to peak on November 7 and then go from there.
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  #186  
Old 03-25-2020, 06:10 PM
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High likely to be PSU. The huge recruiting weekend that was lost to the virus may really hurt ND this year.

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  #187  
Old 03-25-2020, 08:06 PM
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We need to do whatever OSU is doing because it's working. They are killing it.
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  #188  
Old 03-26-2020, 02:04 AM
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We need to do whatever OSU is doing because it's working. They are killing it.
What? Cheat?
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  #189  
Old 03-26-2020, 03:21 AM
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I wonder how much the repercussions of the coronavirus will affect recruiting over the next two years. I think kids may be more likely than ever to go to school within short driving distance of home. Parents may be less able to afford airplane tickets, and mothers may want more than ever to keep their sons nearby in case of emergency.
If that does end up being true, ND could have a couple rough recruiting classes. Im glad they have commitments like they do now, and can only hope they hold up.
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Old 03-26-2020, 01:42 PM
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I wonder how much the repercussions of the coronavirus will affect recruiting over the next two years. I think kids may be more likely than ever to go to school within short driving distance of home. Parents may be less able to afford airplane tickets, and mothers may want more than ever to keep their sons nearby in case of emergency.
If that does end up being true, ND could have a couple rough recruiting classes. Im glad they have commitments like they do now, and can only hope they hold up.
I was wondering the same thing from a psychological standpoint what the future impact is going to be on recruits and their families. I never thought of the financial impact this will also have too....good point.
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  #191  
Old 03-26-2020, 04:37 PM
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Tengwall to PSU as expected.
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Old 03-26-2020, 06:34 PM
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What? Cheat?
They aren't cheating. They have better coaches who get better players, develop them and kick *** on the field.
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Old 03-26-2020, 06:34 PM
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Tengwall to PSU as expected.
Spindler looking like he will follow suit.

It's not looking good for ND.
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  #194  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:23 PM
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Spindler looking like he will follow suit.

It's not looking good for ND.
Losing the big recruiting weekend is going to hurt badly. I actually think ND could have gotten a few of these guys had they gotten them on campus and together. It is highly important for ND to get recruits on campus where other schools can do well without it.
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Old 03-26-2020, 09:38 PM
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They aren't cheating. They have better coaches who get better players, develop them and kick *** on the field.
BS!!

Are they still providing cars for the players? Still changing grades to keep the player eligible?
I doubt they have changed that much.
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  #196  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:39 PM
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Why are recruits committing now? Have they visited campuses on unofficials and do not feel a need to wait any longer to have officials?

Shouldn't BK be able to convince them to wait a few months?
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Old 03-26-2020, 09:48 PM
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Why are recruits committing now? Have they visited campuses on unofficials and do not feel a need to wait any longer to have officials?

Shouldn't BK be able to convince them to wait a few months?
These last couple simply chose to stay at home or very close to home. ND has been very quick to reaction with secondary offers at multiple positions. I am updating the front page now. ND needs to land another big fish on the OL to go with Fisher.
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  #198  
Old 03-26-2020, 10:44 PM
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Dellinger is now CBd 100% to LSU?! What happened there? Was really hoping Rocco and him would both have ended up Irish. Guessing we dont get either now?
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Old 03-27-2020, 12:31 AM
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These last couple simply chose to stay at home or very close to home. ND has been very quick to reaction with secondary offers at multiple positions. I am updating the front page now. ND needs to land another big fish on the OL to go with Fisher.
So much for hoping for a Top 5 class. Does this mean that the class is now trending out of the Top 10? Perhaps we should just start calling BK, "Top 20" Kelly.
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Old 03-27-2020, 12:34 AM
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Dellinger is now CBd 100% to LSU?! What happened there? Was really hoping Rocco and him would both have ended up Irish. Guessing we dont get either now?
Hard to believe that one event being cancelled is causing every top OL prospect to go elsewhere. Perhaps ND did not have the traction they thought.
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