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  #1  
Old 12-07-2019, 05:53 PM
jbrown_9999 jbrown_9999 is offline
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Default Dilution of ND's talent from 2011 to 2019

Moving discussion away from the 2020 recruits thread


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Originally Posted by jbrown_9999 View Post
That is where the 247 ranking of 85 person rosters comes into play. They rank teams each year on the basis of whose is on the team at that time. They subtract transfers out and add transfers in.

This shows that from 2015 to 2019, ND's total roster became less talented compared to other teams.

It shows that, as LasVegas said, Kelly got lazy and recruiting suffered.

Now, we have to hope that Kelly 2.0 does not get lazy again since he is no longer on the hot seat.

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Originally Posted by Synoptico View Post
Not sure i agree that Kelly got lazy.

Lots of recruiting falls on other coaches... and there were several during that time who wern't good recruiters.

Also, there isnt a huge change in things.

Agree to disagree
Dropping from a roster ranked #8 to #14 is significant since I believe that all (or at least almost all) NCs for BCS and CFP have had a Top 10 roster talent-wise. Last year, ND had the #10 roster and made the CFP. This year, they have the #14 roster and are ranked 15th. Given that Kelly does not seem to have the ability to coach above his talent, then it appears his only hope to ever win a NC is to improve his recruiting to the level it used to be at to have a top 10 roster again.

His 2020 class is small and ranked #12. There is a good chance that it will drop a few spots since other schools will probably add more recruits than ND by February signing day. As a result, it will probably not lift the 2020 ND roster to top 10 for overall talent but will probably stay near #14.

Kelly had two single digit ranked recruiting classes in his first three full cycles of recruiting then never again. He used to have a top 10 team talent-wise and then let it fall to top 15.

His history as a coach at ND is one who made changes to save his job not one who makes changes because he hungers to win a NC.
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  #2  
Old 12-08-2019, 03:13 AM
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Our roster is deeper than itís ever been. This is retarded...anyone who follows ND football knows this is incorrect.
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Old 12-08-2019, 03:18 AM
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Our roster is deeper than itís ever been. This is retarded...anyone who follows ND football knows this is incorrect.
LOL. You are right
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Old 12-08-2019, 04:08 AM
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Our roster is deeper than it’s ever been. This is retarded...anyone who follows ND football knows this is incorrect.
Perhaps you have only been following ND Football since 2015. Some fans believe that the Leahy post-WWII years in the late 1940's were the deepest ever given that ND had backups getting drafted into the NFL and third-stringers transferring and ending up All-Americans at other schools.

Regardless of your hyperbole about the roster being deeper than it has ever been, it is debatable whether or not the current roster is the deepest in the Kelly era much less of all time. Kelly had 18 players get drafted from 2012 to 2014. He needs six players to get drafted in 2020 and another six in 2021 to simply match that.

In terms of the current roster, the QB and RB positions are relatively weak while the TE and OL may not quite match earlier units of Kelly's. To me, it is not a given that the current defense is better than the 2012 unit.

Last edited by jbrown_9999; 12-08-2019 at 04:13 AM.
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Old 12-08-2019, 05:13 AM
golson5 golson5 is offline
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Originally Posted by jbrown_9999 View Post
Perhaps you have only been following ND Football since 2015. Some fans believe that the Leahy post-WWII years in the late 1940's were the deepest ever given that ND had backups getting drafted into the NFL and third-stringers transferring and ending up All-Americans at other schools.

Regardless of your hyperbole about the roster being deeper than it has ever been, it is debatable whether or not the current roster is the deepest in the Kelly era much less of all time. Kelly had 18 players get drafted from 2012 to 2014. He needs six players to get drafted in 2020 and another six in 2021 to simply match that.

In terms of the current roster, the QB and RB positions are relatively weak while the TE and OL may not quite match earlier units of Kelly's. To me, it is not a given that the current defense is better than the 2012 unit.
We'll get 6 drafted this year, and 6 or nore next year
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Old 12-08-2019, 05:14 AM
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Originally Posted by jbrown_9999 View Post
Perhaps you have only been following ND Football since 2015. Some fans believe that the Leahy post-WWII years in the late 1940's were the deepest ever given that ND had backups getting drafted into the NFL and third-stringers transferring and ending up All-Americans at other schools.

Regardless of your hyperbole about the roster being deeper than it has ever been, it is debatable whether or not the current roster is the deepest in the Kelly era much less of all time. Kelly had 18 players get drafted from 2012 to 2014. He needs six players to get drafted in 2020 and another six in 2021 to simply match that.

In terms of the current roster, the QB and RB positions are relatively weak while the TE and OL may not quite match earlier units of Kelly's. To me, it is not a given that the current defense is better than the 2012 unit.
I believe he meant under Kelly. And it would be correct
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Old 12-08-2019, 04:17 PM
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We'll get 6 drafted this year, and 6 or nore next year
Pretty confident in saying that Okwara, Kareem, Claypool, Pride, Gilman and Elliott get drafted at some point. Could also see a guy like Jamir Jones depending on his testing numbers. You could say the same for Bilal.

As for next year, definitely Kmet, Eichenberg, Kraemer, Hayes (if the shoulders are okay), Ogundeji. Book would probably get picked up late round as well. Other guys to watch would be Hainsey (think he will impress people as a guard prospect) and Banks if he leaves early. Same goes for someone like JOK if he chooses to leave early.

Iím sure Iím missing some guys off the top of my head.
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Old 12-08-2019, 04:23 PM
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Originally Posted by jbrown_9999 View Post
Moving discussion away from the 2020 recruits thread







Dropping from a roster ranked #8 to #14 is significant since I believe that all (or at least almost all) NCs for BCS and CFP have had a Top 10 roster talent-wise. Last year, ND had the #10 roster and made the CFP. This year, they have the #14 roster and are ranked 15th. Given that Kelly does not seem to have the ability to coach above his talent, then it appears his only hope to ever win a NC is to improve his recruiting to the level it used to be at to have a top 10 roster again.

His 2020 class is small and ranked #12. There is a good chance that it will drop a few spots since other schools will probably add more recruits than ND by February signing day. As a result, it will probably not lift the 2020 ND roster to top 10 for overall talent but will probably stay near #14.

Kelly had two single digit ranked recruiting classes in his first three full cycles of recruiting then never again. He used to have a top 10 team talent-wise and then let it fall to top 15.

His history as a coach at ND is one who made changes to save his job not one who makes changes because he hungers to win a NC.
ND is landing more impact guys even in their smaller classes, so while yes the class will be ranked somewhere between 12-15, their average rating is actually much better than teams ahead of them. Kinda like Clemson classes of a few years ago before they turned into the best recruiting school along side Bama haha.

Also, Iím not a huge fan of the talent spectrum because it strictly goes off how they were labeled as recruits, and doesnít adjust for an uptick in play from lower rated guys, and a down tick in play from higher rated guys. No one looks at NDs Safeties this year as a weakness, but yet Elliott was a three star athlete and Gilman was unranked and a Navy transfer. Itís all relative. Looking at a single recruiting class or a couple combined to establish what the coaches did from a building of depth standpoint is great. I do it all the time, but things like talent of the whole 85, doesnít get adjusted properly imo.
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Old 12-08-2019, 04:58 PM
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Originally Posted by LasVegasIrish View Post
ND is landing more impact guys even in their smaller classes, so while yes the class will be ranked somewhere between 12-15, their average rating is actually much better than teams ahead of them. Kinda like Clemson classes of a few years ago before they turned into the best recruiting school along side Bama haha.

Also, I’m not a huge fan of the talent spectrum because it strictly goes off how they were labeled as recruits, and doesn’t adjust for an uptick in play from lower rated guys, and a down tick in play from higher rated guys. No one looks at NDs Safeties this year as a weakness, but yet Elliott was a three star athlete and Gilman was unranked and a Navy transfer. It’s all relative. Looking at a single recruiting class or a couple combined to establish what the coaches did from a building of depth standpoint is great. I do it all the time, but things like talent of the whole 85, doesn’t get adjusted properly imo.
I agree that it is not perfect. One issue is that it does not give upper classmen ratings more weight than underclassmen since they will usually have more of an impact for a given season. But it can be used as gauge of recruiting over time (it will weight for class size to some extent) by looking at the talent of the active 85 person roster each year. As such, it takes transfers in and out into account which looking at individual classes does not. Given that it somewhat predicts trailing draft results, there must be a pretty decent collation between the 247 85 person talent spectrum ranking and actual, on the field, team talent. Will there be players like Gilman who are underrated?, Yes. But there will also be players like a Kevin Austin who work in the other direction.

It can also be used to gauge a staff's ability to develop talent. Coaches like Swinney and Riley whose team's on the field performance out-performed their team's recruiting ranking, pointing to those coachs' ability to separate the wheat from the chaff and evaluate talent better than the services and/or develop players better than other programs. It could also mean that their schemes amplify their team's talent better than other schemes. Or, more likely, a combination of all of the above. i.e. Identify talent better, have better schemes (for their personnel), and coach/develop the players better.

Last edited by jbrown_9999; 12-08-2019 at 05:07 PM.
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Old 12-08-2019, 05:01 PM
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The recruiting and coaching is better now. The anomaly you point out is the 2013 class after 2012. 2013 had Max Redfield and Greg Bryant and cast. Previously there was high turnover. The average kid still on campus producing for the program is better now. Otherwise ND is holding on to better recruits longer, developing longer and keeping a full deck of 85 recruits. Staff is honest with kids regarding playing time.

Glad you made the point ND is doing better now. Thanks!

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Old 12-10-2019, 01:00 AM
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Originally Posted by jbrown_9999 View Post
I agree that it is not perfect. One issue is that it does not give upper classmen ratings more weight than underclassmen since they will usually have more of an impact for a given season. But it can be used as gauge of recruiting over time (it will weight for class size to some extent) by looking at the talent of the active 85 person roster each year. As such, it takes transfers in and out into account which looking at individual classes does not. Given that it somewhat predicts trailing draft results, there must be a pretty decent collation between the 247 85 person talent spectrum ranking and actual, on the field, team talent. Will there be players like Gilman who are underrated?, Yes. But there will also be players like a Kevin Austin who work in the other direction.

It can also be used to gauge a staff's ability to develop talent. Coaches like Swinney and Riley whose team's on the field performance out-performed their team's recruiting ranking, pointing to those coachs' ability to separate the wheat from the chaff and evaluate talent better than the services and/or develop players better than other programs. It could also mean that their schemes amplify their team's talent better than other schemes. Or, more likely, a combination of all of the above. i.e. Identify talent better, have better schemes (for their personnel), and coach/develop the players better.
Woah, back off of Austin. Lol Iíve got it on good word the staff believes heís the best WR on the team currently. Stays on track will easily be starting next year.
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Old 12-10-2019, 02:12 AM
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Woah, back off of Austin. Lol Iíve got it on good word the staff believes heís the best WR on the team currently. Stays on track will easily be starting next year.
That would be great.

My point is that he lifts the 2019 ranking more so than Gilman even though Gilman's impact is greater. That said, having 85 players in the ranking, things like that tend to even out .
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Old 12-10-2019, 04:10 AM
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Tracking how many top players were misses and how many lower rated players were hits may lead to the true answer. I think ND has decreased the misses on the top end and increased the hits on the bottom end. No player rating or team ranking will account for that but the development of the scouting department has improved greatly and ND now has a true plan when they recruit kids. I agree the team is better. There is depth which creates competition making all levels of players better.
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Old 12-11-2019, 07:37 PM
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Originally Posted by irishwavend View Post
Our roster is deeper than itís ever been. This is retarded...anyone who follows ND football knows this is incorrect.
What year did you start watching ND football, because anyone who has watched ND football for as long as I have knows you are incorrect.
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Old 12-11-2019, 08:53 PM
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What year did you start watching ND football, because anyone who has watched ND football for as long as I have knows you are incorrect.
Nobody cares bc youíre living in the past. The game has changed and ND is at a major disadvantage. However, instead of offering solutions, all you do is b**tch. Itís never going to be 1990 again. Student athletes and amateurism are over at college football powerhouses. ND needs to find their niche to be competitive, but itís never going to be a at the consistent high level it was 30 yrs ago.
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Old 12-11-2019, 09:07 PM
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Nobody cares bc you’re living in the past. The game has changed and ND is at a major disadvantage. However, instead of offering solutions, all you do is b**tch. It’s never going to be 1990 again. Student athletes and amateurism are over at college football powerhouses. ND needs to find their niche to be competitive, but it’s never going to be a at the consistent high level it was 30 yrs ago.
When ND has won a NC they have had an elite coach.

Kelly has been close to a NC but seems to have hit his ceiling

You stated that Kelly is not an Elite Coach.

One can assume that an Elite Coach will win more than Kelly. (due to better recruiting, better development, better scheme. better coaching, better assistants, etc.)

So it is completely possible that an Elite Coach might win a NC at ND in the future.

The problem is that we will never know if another NC is possible at ND until ND has another Elite Coach which cannot happen as long as Kelly is their coach.

(Please respond with your self-anointed superiority and make sure you include your typical derogatory name-calling)

Last edited by jbrown_9999; 12-11-2019 at 09:10 PM.
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Old 12-11-2019, 10:57 PM
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I think given the current situation, itís only right to move forward with Kelly as the coach. Where is this elite coach waiting in the wings that we know forsure would take us to the next level? I started following ND football when Willingham was the head coach. When was the last time you could say weíve had the stability as a program in terms of winning and talent. With recruiting at an upward trajectory, albeit not perfect, it only makes sense to see how next year plays out. Just like you guys, the Big game performances **** me off but itís obvious we still have work to do in terms bringing in talent especially at the skill positions. Seems as though, skill position recruiting is improving.
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Old 12-11-2019, 11:36 PM
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I think given the current situation, itís only right to move forward with Kelly as the coach. Where is this elite coach waiting in the wings that we know forsure would take us to the next level? I started following ND football when Willingham was the head coach. When was the last time you could say weíve had the stability as a program in terms of winning and talent. With recruiting at an upward trajectory, albeit not perfect, it only makes sense to see how next year plays out. Just like you guys, the Big game performances **** me off but itís obvious we still have work to do in terms bringing in talent especially at the skill positions. Seems as though, skill position recruiting is improving.
Given that Dabo Swinney took at least 4 years as a head coach to evolve into an elite coach and given that it is highly probable that Kelly will be at ND for at least 4 more years, perhaps Kelly will be able to improve as a coach enough to win a NC before he retires. It's not like he has been coaching for decades.
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Old 12-12-2019, 12:01 AM
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When ND has won a NC they have had an elite coach.

Kelly has been close to a NC but seems to have hit his ceiling

You stated that Kelly is not an Elite Coach.

One can assume that an Elite Coach will win more than Kelly. (due to better recruiting, better development, better scheme. better coaching, better assistants, etc.)

So it is completely possible that an Elite Coach might win a NC at ND in the future.

The problem is that we will never know if another NC is possible at ND until ND has another Elite Coach which cannot happen as long as Kelly is their coach.

(Please respond with your self-anointed superiority and make sure you include your typical derogatory name-calling)
What elite coach is out there? You act like theyíre so easy to find and like ND is the only job offer theyíll get. It took 15 yrs just to find a good coach in Kelly. Iím so sick of this moronic whining ďwhy canít we get Matt Rhule, what about Fleck?Ē Every NFL team with an opening wants Rhule, heís not coming to ND. Fleck is overrated and a product of they hype from his sideline antics. Like I said, most football fans are dumb azzes. You think itís like Fantasy Football or Barstool sports where everything is based on emotion and thereís no consequences for your stupid decisions.

Again, look at the 2016 wish list. Thatís plenty of proof most of us canít judge a quality prospective HC worth a damn. Gary Patterson, Larry Fedora, Mike McIntyre, how are those guys looking today? But that doesnít matter to any of you, bc you donít have to deal with the fallout. Youíll just **** and moan until they hire the next overrated dumpster fire and repeat the cycle, bc you guys never fín learn.
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Old 12-12-2019, 12:01 AM
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I think given the current situation, itís only right to move forward with Kelly as the coach. Where is this elite coach waiting in the wings that we know forsure would take us to the next level? I started following ND football when Willingham was the head coach. When was the last time you could say weíve had the stability as a program in terms of winning and talent. With recruiting at an upward trajectory, albeit not perfect, it only makes sense to see how next year plays out. Just like you guys, the Big game performances **** me off but itís obvious we still have work to do in terms bringing in talent especially at the skill positions. Seems as though, skill position recruiting is improving.
Sensible post.
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Old 12-12-2019, 12:33 AM
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What elite coach is out there? You act like theyíre so easy to find and like ND is the only job offer theyíll get. It took 15 yrs just to find a good coach in Kelly. Iím so sick of this moronic whining ďwhy canít we get Matt Rhule, what about Fleck?Ē Every NFL team with an opening wants Rhule, heís not coming to ND. Fleck is overrated and a product of they hype from his sideline antics. Like I said, most football fans are dumb azzes. You think itís like Fantasy Football or Barstool sports where everything is based on emotion and thereís no consequences for your stupid decisions.

Again, look at the 2016 wish list. Thatís plenty of proof most of us canít judge a quality prospective HC worth a damn. Gary Patterson, Larry Fedora, Mike McIntyre, how are those guys looking today? But that doesnít matter to any of you, bc you donít have to deal with the fallout. Youíll just **** and moan until they hire the next overrated dumpster fire and repeat the cycle, bc you guys never fín learn.
Somebody pissed in your cheerios tonight.
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Old 12-12-2019, 01:57 AM
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Originally Posted by ELDER06 View Post
What elite coach is out there? You act like they’re so easy to find and like ND is the only job offer they’ll get. It took 15 yrs just to find a good coach in Kelly. I’m so sick of this moronic whining “why can’t we get Matt Rhule, what about Fleck?” Every NFL team with an opening wants Rhule, he’s not coming to ND. Fleck is overrated and a product of they hype from his sideline antics. Like I said, most football fans are dumb azzes. You think it’s like Fantasy Football or Barstool sports where everything is based on emotion and there’s no consequences for your stupid decisions.

Again, look at the 2016 wish list. That’s plenty of proof most of us can’t judge a quality prospective HC worth a damn. Gary Patterson, Larry Fedora, Mike McIntyre, how are those guys looking today? But that doesn’t matter to any of you, bc you don’t have to deal with the fallout. You’ll just **** and moan until they hire the next overrated dumpster fire and repeat the cycle, bc you guys never f’n learn.
You totally missed my point.

The argument that 1) ND might win a NC if it had an elite coach is a different argument than 2) whether or not ND can ever again hire an elite coach in the future.

Can you answer just question #1? Another way of phrasing it is:

Pretend that Saban or Meyer became ND's coach tomorrow, is it conceivable to think that they might win a NC at ND in the next five years? i.e. Could one of those two coaches overcome any institutional constraints at ND to win a NC?

This question has nothing to do with getting rid of Kelly, or figuring out the next coach to hire. It is simply whether or not you think that one of the top coaches of all time could win a NC at Notre Dame in the 2020's.

Last edited by jbrown_9999; 12-12-2019 at 02:01 AM.
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Old 12-12-2019, 02:02 AM
ELDER06 ELDER06 is offline
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Somebody pissed in your cheerios tonight.
Iím just tired of the stupidity. The honest to godís truth is ND is lucky to have Kelly and Kelly is lucky ND stuck with him after 2016.

I agree, the goal should be one day to win a National Title, but ND isnít going to be able to do it the same way as everyone else. IMO, thereís one current coach in all of College Football that wouldíve won a title at ND over the same 10 yr stretch as Kelly and thatís Nick Saban. Thatís not to say Dabo, Lincoln Riley, maybe even Franklin arenít better coaches. However, if the benchmark is winning a title, you have to realistically understand what a massive task that is at ND in todayís environment.
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Old 12-12-2019, 02:05 AM
ELDER06 ELDER06 is offline
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Originally Posted by jbrown_9999 View Post
You totally missed my point.

The argument that 1) ND might win a NC if it had an elite coach is a different argument than 2) whether or not ND can ever again hire an elite coach in the future.

Can you answer just question #1? Another way of phrasing it is:

Pretend that Saban or Meyer became ND's coach tomorrow, is it conceivable to think that they might win a NC at ND in the next five years? i.e. Could one of those two coaches overcome any institutional constraints at ND to win a NC?

This question has nothing to do with getting rid of Kelly, or figuring out the next coach to hire. It is simply whether or not you think that one of the top coaches of all time could win a NC at Notre Dame in the 2020's.
Those are the only 2 that could do it within 5 yrs of starting the job.
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Old 12-12-2019, 02:08 AM
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Those are the only 2 that could do it within 5 yrs of starting the job.
Do you think that Kelly can win a NC in the next five years?
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