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  #76  
Old 01-10-2020, 12:55 AM
Jim2Dokes Jim2Dokes is offline
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Originally Posted by Dardo View Post
You could even go a slightly different direction and say that the last 2 number 1 picks went to Oklahoma. Or young guys like Lamar or Mahomes who were coached by actual good/great offensive coaches in Petrino and Kingsbury (something we thought we were getting in Kelly.) Watson went to Clemson obviously, and the guys that are going to be picked high in this class all went to powerhouses: Burrow, Tua, Fromm even guys like Eason at Washington started at Georgia.
I would argue that this class is an outliner, but really we still do not know. And Oklahoma’s QBs are still questionable with Baker stock Dropping by the minute. Lamar and Mahones never experienced the success that ND has had under Kelly so not sure why they are even relevant to this conversation. ND has had just as much success as Oklahoma.
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  #77  
Old 01-10-2020, 02:49 AM
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Doesn’t matter to this guy, his argument is that since Kelly has 1 QB in the NFl and Saban had John David Booty and John Parker Wilson were drafted, Kelly is a terrible coach. He may be, but he’s not listening to reason that his argument is not valid.

There are two elite QBs in the nfl that won a NC, Watson and Newton. Newton’s coach got fired two years later...
Please note that I have not said that an elite NFL QB is reflective of their college coach. Why you bring up Watson and Newton, I am not sure.

I guess that I am totally wrong and that you should not expect a good college coach with a pass-based offense to identify and develop talent at the QB position that might occasionally be of interest to the NFL at a rate better than one every ten years.

Instead of identifying/developing players who have the physical traits such as height, arm strength, and the ability to read defenses and quickly make decisive decisions, I guess that a college coach should look for high schoolers with some other set of traits such as average height, a weak arm, etc. Those 3 star QBs can rally their teams and use their intangibles to will their teams to victory.

Perhaps they can recruit 5'11" 225 pound OTs as well.

The argument has been made by others (who support Kelly BTW) that very good to excellent QB play is needed to win a NC

As a result, is it unreasonable to expect a coach wanting to win a NC to have the ability to identify and develop very good to excellent QBs? While it is completely understandable that some of these QBs will be good college players but have no chance to play in the NFL due to physical limitations, is it reasonable to expect a coach to almost always recruit QBs that are missing the traits valued by the NFL if that coach wants to win a NC?

Last edited by jbrown_9999; 01-10-2020 at 03:04 AM.
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  #78  
Old 01-10-2020, 03:48 AM
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It's too bad the kid is transferring. He's at least a seasoned backup. Hopefully the remaining QBs get some preperation and not just clipboard holding duties during practice. Best of luck Phil.
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  #79  
Old 01-10-2020, 04:17 AM
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One of the most coveted qbs from the 2018 class with offers that included Bama, Clemson, and OSU "cant throw"? Guess youre getting your assessment from the BK camp...lol

The QBs who transferred out of ND failed because BK can't develop a QB to save his life...
It's worse than that. His QBs regress in their 2nd year and I think you've alluded to that before.

Ian Book looked really sharp and trusted all of his reads in 2018 and was very decisive in taking the ball down and running. 2019 was a much different story obviously..

Deshone Kizer looked like a first round baller when he stepped in for Malik getting hurt against UVA I believe it was... That year he looked amazing and it was the same brick wall he hit the next year..

I'm not sure if it's skills development as much as it is information to process with the scheme.. could be both who knows.
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  #80  
Old 01-10-2020, 02:10 PM
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Out of this list only Alex Smith has had a decent NFL career. You are missing the point, these are considered the top coaches, the very top and yet have not produced an elite qb in the nfl yet.. we shall see about Tua. I hate that you make it so easy to defend Kelly, when I don’t think he is even close to the level of these coaches.
This was your initial argument correct? It's a weird argument because no where in this thread did anyone pine for Kelly to produce "elite QBs in the NFL," just more than one QB in the NFL.

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Doesn’t matter to this guy, his argument is that since Kelly has 1 QB in the NFl and Saban had John David Booty and John Parker Wilson were drafted, Kelly is a terrible coach. He may be, but he’s not listening to reason that his argument is not valid.
Also no one in this thread has made the argument that Kelly is a terrible coach, sick strawman. And mentioning John David Booty and John Parker Wilson instead of McCarron/Tua shows that you are arguing disingenuously as hell.

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Originally Posted by Jim2Dokes View Post
I would argue that this class is an outliner, but really we still do not know. And Oklahoma’s QBs are still questionable with Baker stock Dropping by the minute. Lamar and Mahones never experienced the success that ND has had under Kelly so not sure why they are even relevant to this conversation. ND has had just as much success as Oklahoma.
Now let's look more recently because college football is a lot different offensively than it was even 15 years ago. The QBs to win NCs during Kelly's ND Tenure have been:

2019 - Joe Burrow/ Trevor Lawrence
2018 - Trevor Lawrence
2017 - Tua/Jalen Hurts
2016 - Deshaun Watson
2015 - Jake Coker
2014 - JT Barrett/Cardale Jone
2013 - Jameis Winston
2012 - AJ Mccaron
2011 - AJ Mccaron
2010 - Cam Newton

Newton/Winston/Watson were all first round picks who are either stars or starters in the NFL. McCarron started an NFL game this year and has spent 6 years on rosters as a back-up. Barrett/Jones have spent 4 years on practice squads. Coker never really made it and his wikipedia says he retired due to a knee injury but it doesn't look like he would have stuck around on practice squads anyway. Burrow/Lawrence/Tua will all be first round picks at the very least. Maybe they won't succeed, but first round pick alone makes them more successful than any QB Kelly has ever coached.

So out of the NCs won in Kelly's tenure at ND, 2 were one by NFL stars in Winston and Newton, 1 was won by a first round pick who, while still a starter isn't very good in Winston, 2 were won by a journeyman back-up in McCarron, 3 were won by first round picks who haven't been draft eligible yet but will all be picked high over the next 2 years and 2 never really made a real NFL team.

So 8 out of the last 10 NCs were won by guys who at the very least are NFL back ups and 6 of those guys were first round picks. But I guess it's cool that Kelly has recruited and developed 1 NFL draft pick.

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ND has had just as much success as Oklahoma.
Also this is patently ridiculous. Oklahoma has finished top 5 5/5 years. Come on.

Last edited by Dardo; 01-10-2020 at 03:42 PM.
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  #81  
Old 01-11-2020, 04:08 AM
Jim2Dokes Jim2Dokes is offline
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This was your initial argument correct? It's a weird argument because no where in this thread did anyone pine for Kelly to produce "elite QBs in the NFL," just more than one QB in the NFL.



Also no one in this thread has made the argument that Kelly is a terrible coach, sick strawman. And mentioning John David Booty and John Parker Wilson instead of McCarron/Tua shows that you are arguing disingenuously as hell.



Now let's look more recently because college football is a lot different offensively than it was even 15 years ago. The QBs to win NCs during Kelly's ND Tenure have been:

2019 - Joe Burrow/ Trevor Lawrence
2018 - Trevor Lawrence
2017 - Tua/Jalen Hurts
2016 - Deshaun Watson
2015 - Jake Coker
2014 - JT Barrett/Cardale Jone
2013 - Jameis Winston
2012 - AJ Mccaron
2011 - AJ Mccaron
2010 - Cam Newton

Newton/Winston/Watson were all first round picks who are either stars or starters in the NFL. McCarron started an NFL game this year and has spent 6 years on rosters as a back-up. Barrett/Jones have spent 4 years on practice squads. Coker never really made it and his wikipedia says he retired due to a knee injury but it doesn't look like he would have stuck around on practice squads anyway. Burrow/Lawrence/Tua will all be first round picks at the very least. Maybe they won't succeed, but first round pick alone makes them more successful than any QB Kelly has ever coached.

So out of the NCs won in Kelly's tenure at ND, 2 were one by NFL stars in Winston and Newton, 1 was won by a first round pick who, while still a starter isn't very good in Winston, 2 were won by a journeyman back-up in McCarron, 3 were won by first round picks who haven't been draft eligible yet but will all be picked high over the next 2 years and 2 never really made a real NFL team.

So 8 out of the last 10 NCs were won by guys who at the very least are NFL back ups and 6 of those guys were first round picks. But I guess it's cool that Kelly has recruited and developed 1 NFL draft pick.



Also this is patently ridiculous. Oklahoma has finished top 5 5/5 years. Come on.
1. I didn’t start the argument, the argument was that Kelly has not produced more than 1 QBs that started in the NFL. I simply brought up that Meyer and Saban have not had the best of luck in that dept either, the best coaches of our era. I believe it is a valid point, because NONE of their QBs are elite YET in the NFL, again we shall see about Tua. 2. Look at Jbrowns post history and get back to me about him not thinking Kelly is a terrible coach. 3. No doubt, never disagreed that you do need a decent QB to win football games. Also, the 3 QBs you highlight are YET to be in the NFL and Saban and Meyer (my arguement) never coached Newton or Watson. 4. Oklahoma has been doing what ND has done for all these years, yet ND get stuck at 15. Oklahoma beat ISU by 1 point and lost to KSU. As you saw ND mopped the floor with ISU and I guarantee LSU would not have put up 63 against ND. LSU could have put up 80, Oklahoma may end up top 5, but did they really show anything better than ND? I also bet Oklahoma, when they get a loss will still be in the convo for a playoff spot despite getting hammered in the playoffs two years in a row. Big 12 has been ****** for years, worse than the pac 12, a bunch of paper tigers.

Please don’t make me go through the top 15 NFL QBs coaches and how most were fired from their college gigs after a few years. I don’t really want to spend the time. Look it up yourself.

Last edited by Jim2Dokes; 01-11-2020 at 05:37 AM.
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  #82  
Old 01-11-2020, 02:25 PM
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You also have to take into account which QB's are winning for which teams.

Alabama could win with game managers who were good, but didn't have to win the game. They just had to get the ball to the 5* skill players and score 17+ points so their defense with 11 NFL players could win the game.

Look at the non-Alabama teams and their QBs. Yes, not all of them made it big in the NFL, but they were all superstar college QBs.

Newton, Watson, Lawrence, Winston all led their teams to titles. They were all superstars.

ND has teams similar to those. If ND gets a superstar QB they are a title contender.

If they have a good college QB, they are a 10 win team. ND's defense gave up more than 24 points only twice this year. It doesn't take an amazing college QB to put up 24 points a game today and put up some gaudy record. Does anyone think if ND had Ian Book, but Van Gorder as DC that they are still a 10 win team?
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  #83  
Old 01-11-2020, 05:35 PM
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1. I didn’t start the argument, the argument was that Kelly has not produced more than 1 QBs that started in the NFL.
Please re-read my posts. No where did I mention a QB starting in the NFL.

I first asked: "Am I correct that in ten years at ND, Brian Kelly has had only one QB (Kizer) who made an NFL roster?"

I then stated: "If recruiting / developing a high performing QB is a requirement to win a NC, then a head coach who has only sent one QB to the NFL in 10 years at the same school does not seem likely to win one."


Are you arguing the opposite? i.e., A coach who has had only one QB make an NFL roster in ten years is likely to win a NC?

.

Last edited by jbrown_9999; 01-11-2020 at 05:42 PM.
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  #84  
Old 01-13-2020, 01:33 AM
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Please re-read my posts. No where did I mention a QB starting in the NFL.

I first asked: "Am I correct that in ten years at ND, Brian Kelly has had only one QB (Kizer) who made an NFL roster?"

I then stated: "If recruiting / developing a high performing QB is a requirement to win a NC, then a head coach who has only sent one QB to the NFL in 10 years at the same school does not seem likely to win one."


Are you arguing the opposite? i.e., A coach who has had only one QB make an NFL roster in ten years is likely to win a NC?

.
Okay you win. This is getting ridiculous. Who cares? It’s not like ANY OSU QB is doing anything meaningful in the NFL, but I guess you said NFL roster and not an actual QB in the NFL so enjoy your chicken dinner. TAJ Boyd is also lighting it up in the NFL. Stupid point and you know it.
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  #85  
Old 01-13-2020, 01:38 AM
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BK is his coach, that is enough of a reason to transfer. Good luck Jurk.
Wrong, Tommy is his coach. Also, Phil said that Tommy is the main reason for leaving.
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  #86  
Old 01-13-2020, 02:00 AM
jbrown_9999 jbrown_9999 is offline
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Originally Posted by Jim2Dokes View Post
Okay you win. This is getting ridiculous. Who cares? It’s not like ANY OSU QB is doing anything meaningful in the NFL, but I guess you said NFL roster and not an actual QB in the NFL so enjoy your chicken dinner. TAJ Boyd is also lighting it up in the NFL. Stupid point and you know it.
It's not a stupid point. It is a fundamental question as to whether or not fans of ND should expect the current coach (and coach for probably the next four seasons) to contend for a NC given his track record concerning QBs over the last ten years.

(it's also not my fault that you misconstrued my question)

Last edited by jbrown_9999; 01-13-2020 at 02:11 AM.
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  #87  
Old 01-13-2020, 02:41 AM
Jim2Dokes Jim2Dokes is offline
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It's not a stupid point. It is a fundamental question as to whether or not fans of ND should expect the current coach (and coach for probably the next four seasons) to contend for a NC given his track record concerning QBs over the last ten years.

(it's also not my fault that you misconstrued my question)
Dude I give up, Meyer and Saban as of now have not had successful QBs in the NFl the last 10 years. That’s fact, if that’s your measuring stick, which the argument referred, it’s not a valid argument . If you want to say that JT Barrett caught one pass or whatever in the nfl that makes Meyer better than you win. This is a foolish endeavor, you can carry on.
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  #88  
Old 01-13-2020, 03:04 PM
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Wrong, Tommy is his coach. Also, Phil said that Tommy is the main reason for leaving.
Where’s this from?
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  #89  
Old 01-13-2020, 05:48 PM
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It's worse than that. His QBs regress in their 2nd year and I think you've alluded to that before.

Ian Book looked really sharp and trusted all of his reads in 2018 and was very decisive in taking the ball down and running. 2019 was a much different story obviously..

Deshone Kizer looked like a first round baller when he stepped in for Malik getting hurt against UVA I believe it was... That year he looked amazing and it was the same brick wall he hit the next year..

I'm not sure if it's skills development as much as it is information to process with the scheme.. could be both who knows.
As with most fans, I don't know what the problem is....but it is certainly persistent for long enough to pin it on some level of coaching as opposed to the players themselves. It's clockwork at this point and so I questioned why any elite QB recruit would be interested in subjecting themselves to that.

As I also stated, it could be that elite recruits are cocky enough to think they might be the one to push a program like ND over the obvious performance hurdle that separates us from other high visibility programs. Imagine being the guy who returns ND to true prominence.

But for those of us who have been around long enough to observe the obvious path of regression among QB recruits at ND with BK at the helm, most of us know that it really doesn't matter how elite a QB recruit is that we land---something can and will go wrong between the day he steps foot on campus and the day he gets drafted in a high round and fizzles out in the NFL, or --even worse---transfers to some lower level school while bringing whatever deterioration he experienced at ND with him.

No level of talent or promise is immune to whatever is being done wrong with our QBs here.

Either way, ND loses.
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  #90  
Old 01-13-2020, 08:20 PM
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This regression crap is such a tired argument.

Seriously, who "regressed"? Was it Book? Well, Book had better numbers (TDs, yards, fewer picks) than last year and was improved over the Ian Book we watched for the second half of 2018. He didn't regress.

Maybe it was Rees? Hmmm, Tommy may have been the most consistent QB ND ever had as far as his ratings go (and he slightly improved in each year as a starter in both QBR and stats). He did not regress.

EG improved year 1 to year 2 (Stats and QBR)

DK had more yards, TDs, and fewer picks in year 2

BW sorta did, but he was pretty terrible as a passer from the jump.

MZ doesn't really have a large sample size, but his issue was just losing his job to an injury

I guess Dayne Crist fits the bill....though everyone on this board knows his issue was between the ears after the 2 major knee injuries.

So, in 10 years with BK as a coach at ND, the trend is that QBs tend stay about the same without significant development 1 way or the other.
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  #91  
Old 01-13-2020, 09:15 PM
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This regression crap is such a tired argument.

Seriously, who "regressed"? Was it Book? Well, Book had better numbers (TDs, yards, fewer picks) than last year and was improved over the Ian Book we watched for the second half of 2018. He didn't regress.

Maybe it was Rees? Hmmm, Tommy may have been the most consistent QB ND ever had as far as his ratings go (and he slightly improved in each year as a starter in both QBR and stats). He did not regress.

EG improved year 1 to year 2 (Stats and QBR)

DK had more yards, TDs, and fewer picks in year 2

BW sorta did, but he was pretty terrible as a passer from the jump.

MZ doesn't really have a large sample size, but his issue was just losing his job to an injury

I guess Dayne Crist fits the bill....though everyone on this board knows his issue was between the ears after the 2 major knee injuries.

So, in 10 years with BK as a coach at ND, the trend is that QBs tend stay about the same without significant development 1 way or the other.
Statistics need context. Year one of each of Golson, Wimbush, Kizer, and Book represented a scaled down offense reliant on the defense and the run game as a major component of the offense. Each had flirted with undefeated or one loss seasons. Year two not so much, except Wimbush who didn't get a full year two before he was pulled.

Book looked horrible outside a couple cupcakes in the first half of '19, one would argue back to Nov '18. This season further blurs Books effectiveness in year two due to the very poor schedule and we got beat by the two best teams we saw, one of whom should've been a much closer game. Additionally did the offense simplify the last half of this season which helped Book and the team?

We are entering rarified territory now with Book slated to start year three, and I have no idea what to expect from him or the O. The new OC may have some input in this, but ultimately its still Kelly's offense and scheme.
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  #92  
Old 01-13-2020, 11:02 PM
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This regression crap is such a tired argument.

Seriously, who "regressed"? Was it Book? Well, Book had better numbers (TDs, yards, fewer picks) than last year and was improved over the Ian Book we watched for the second half of 2018. He didn't regress.

Maybe it was Rees? Hmmm, Tommy may have been the most consistent QB ND ever had as far as his ratings go (and he slightly improved in each year as a starter in both QBR and stats). He did not regress.

EG improved year 1 to year 2 (Stats and QBR)

DK had more yards, TDs, and fewer picks in year 2

BW sorta did, but he was pretty terrible as a passer from the jump.

MZ doesn't really have a large sample size, but his issue was just losing his job to an injury

I guess Dayne Crist fits the bill....though everyone on this board knows his issue was between the ears after the 2 major knee injuries.

So, in 10 years with BK as a coach at ND, the trend is that QBs tend stay about the same without significant development 1 way or the other.
They all regressed. I believe our resident stat expert Cory already broke this down years ago...the only QB under BK who stabilized in terms of on field stats was Tommy Rees....obviously not one of our best QB recruits. The rest slowly regressed until they either transferred or got passed up on the depth chart by their understudy. This isnt even up for debate. At competing programs, starting QBs typically get better the longer theyre in the system. Ours get worse.
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