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Old 01-09-2020, 06:58 PM
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tneun89 tneun89 is offline
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Originally Posted by corysold View Post
You are correct that Book isn't garbage, but just throwing out a bunch of stats doesn't make him above average either.

The key stat is Yards per attempt. A lot of Book's passing yards are extensions of the run game. Short throws designed to get 5-7 yards. He isn't a threat downfield.

Yes, when you total his stats at the end the year, they can be eye popping, but you also have to look at the offense that was run to get there.

Like you said, Book is good, not great. ND needs great.

6 QB's had better passer ratings vs Georgia than Book did this year.

Book struggles vs good defenses. Obviously a lot of QB's do, otherwise they wouldn't be good defenses, but at some point, you need your QB to beat the other team.

His rating vs good defenses:

Georgia 116.38
Michigan 99.21
Va Tech 112.88

Also usually struggles vs teams with similar athletes:
USC 106.75
Virginia 123.44

Then he makes hay vs totally inferior teams:
Bowling Green 256.68
New Mexico 271.31
Navy 264.19

He had a similar trend last year, just without the huge games.

ND needs an elite QB to beat elite teams. When the ones with potential keep either transferring, or not panning out, at some point that falls squarely on the coach. No, not every highly recruited QB pans out. But when you are 0 for the decade at ND, that's on Kelly.
Definitely fair and all good points. I tried not to cherry pick stats, which is why I included yards/attempt and completion percentage because he is average or below average in those. In yards/attempt, Hurts, Burrow, Tua, Lawrence and Fields were all Top 10. Same with passing efficiency. Again, Book is not at that elite level, but he is good (and I think he has the potential to be great in 2020, but that is certainly debatable).

I would imagine that the trend line looks the same for almost every quarterback in college, except for Burrow this season.

Jalen Hurts - 191.2 passer rating

3 best games: West Virginia (308.5), South Dakota (253.6), Houston (251.3) (Texas Tech and UCLA were also close to 250)

3 worst games: LSU (100.7), TCU (132.3), Texas (155.9)

Justin Fields - 181.4 passer rating

3 best games: Rutgers (253.3), Miami OH (218.7), Michigan (210.3)

3 worst games: Clemson (122.1), Wisconsin - regular season (148.3), Michigan State (155.6)

Now, I agree with your overall point and I am not trying to compare Book to either of those guys, but the trend lines look very similar. Although, to be fair, Book's lows are lower than Hurts and Fields, and Fields destroyed Michigan. But, basically, you beat up on the terrible teams and pad stats like it's NCAA14, and you struggle against the good teams. Hurts and Fields obviously played better against the best defenses they faced than Book did, but the trend line is still the same.

Completely agree with the BK/QB thing. You can't dance around it after 10 seasons. Just like you can't dance around the "ND doesn't win big games." It happens consistently for 10 years, it's just what it is. Hopefully things can change with Book in 2020 and with ND against Wisconsin/Clemson, but I'm not overly optimistic.

My overall point was basically that Book gives ND the best chance of winning, which was true in 2019 and is true in 2020. Just because Jurkovec was a great recruit doesn't mean anything. Half the Top QB recruits transfer - it's just the way college football is now. It just feels like a lot of people were screaming for Jurkovec when Book is the better QB right now.

Last edited by tneun89; 01-09-2020 at 07:00 PM.
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